As lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the concept of a short lived cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month through which President Trump turned American international coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager not less than to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and america on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, instructed reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “fastidiously finding out” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between america and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He stated he anticipated america to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that occurred and the understandings that have been reached.” He raised the potential for one other cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to point out he was in command of occasions by donning army fatigues and holding a televised assembly together with his prime army officers charged with pushing Ukraine out of Russia’s Kursk area, the place Russia has made progress in current weeks. He directed his troops to defeat Ukraine within the area “within the shortest attainable time,” a transfer that, if profitable, would deny Ukraine a key level of leverage in any negotiations with Russia.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the past month as Mr. Trump realigned American international coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from america and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his needs for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he desires to finish the battle as quickly as attainable, Mr. Putin has signaled he is not going to cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine is not going to be a part of NATO and that the alliance will cut back its presence in Central and Japanese Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the purpose of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some type of respite.” Russia, he stated, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the reputable pursuits of all folks, all nations who reside on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a short lived cease-fire stemmed from the easy calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely surrender its leverage by stopping the preventing with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, could have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good aspect, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, stated the Kremlin may very well be tempted to simply accept a truce that may be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” with a view to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has stored up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s international intelligence company stated on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia within the coming days, based on two folks acquainted with the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inside plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday stated that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week, and he instructed reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators have been en route.
“Persons are going to Russia proper now as we converse,” Mr. Trump stated throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we will get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with attraction offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s international ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the international minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information persona Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and stated Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that america was providing.
“It actually just isn’t unattainable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, stated of the 30-day supply. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, short-term cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had stated he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it will refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area largely again in Russian fingers, Mr. Putin not dangers shedding face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would go away Ukraine in command of an space of Russian territory, stated Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An additional incentive to agree, Mr. Markov stated, was to guarantee that Russia “doesn’t appear like a battle maniac” within the eyes of non-Western international locations which have averted imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he stated, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, similar to a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine in the course of the cease-fire.
“Russia will very doubtless say, ‘Sure, however —,’” Mr. Markov stated in a cellphone interview.
Russia’s widespread pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce may ultimately result in a broader take care of america that, of their view, would betray the unique targets of the battle and ultimately result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the title Alex Parker Returns, argued in a put up on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would enable Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the subsequent spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
