The Quiet Rise of China in Global AI Influence
China’s Growing Influence in AI Governance
As the United States engages in introspective debates, particularly about its role in international forums, China is actively shaping the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global stage. A pivotal moment came in July 2024 when China’s resolution on AI capacity-building garnered support from over 140 countries, affirming its leadership in this vital technological domain. This resolution was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly and signifies a considerable step toward creating legitimate governance structures in AI.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directives in April further emphasize this commitment, instructing his government to aid countries in the Global South in enhancing their technological capabilities. By addressing the global AI divide, China demonstrates a strategic approach that seeks to broaden its influence as a convener in global AI governance. The unveiling of the Global AI Governance Action Plan later in July solidified China’s role as a pivotal player in this evolving landscape.
Understanding AI Capacity-Building
AI capacity-building is much more than a technical endeavor; it focuses on creating educational programs, enhancing local research capabilities, and providing essential infrastructure like data centers. This initiative aims to empower local institutions rather than create external dependencies. By nurturing domestic talents and fostering regulatory frameworks, the goal is to build sustainable capacity that resonates with the needs and contexts of individual countries.
Concrete Initiatives Fuelling AI Diplomacy
China has operationalized its AI diplomacy through a variety of initiatives that demonstrate concrete commitment. These include hosting workshops in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, actively engaging participants from over 40 countries. Furthermore, initiatives like the AI Capacity-Building Action Plan target economically developing nations, while the Group of Friends for International Cooperation in AI Capacity-Building hold regular meetings for collaborative dialogue.
Even Russia, despite its technological constraints, has formalized AI cooperation agreements with China, establishing networks that span entire regions. Together, they leverage existing infrastructure, emphasizing multi-national partnerships that position themselves as reliable long-term partners for AI development in Global Majority countries.
The U.S. Response: Challenges and Gaps
In stark contrast, the United States appears to be systematically dismantling its institutional capacity for international engagement. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), a historical leader in digital development initiatives, has experienced significant reductions in funding. The framework for international collaboration through the State Department’s Global AI Research Agenda also faces disarray, limiting the U.S.’s ability to maintain a foothold in this critical area.
The U.S. has emphasized actions such as electrification and data center investments but has largely ignored the educational components crucial for local skills development. As a result, researchers in the Global Majority increasingly turn to Chinese alternatives for accessing AI tools, which offer competitive pricing and support compared to U.S.-based solutions.
Significance of Global Majority AI Partnerships for U.S. Interests
Engaging with Global Majority nations in AI capacity-building carries immense strategic importance for the U.S. This demographic represents a substantial portion of the world’s population and, therefore, will play a critical role in shaping future AI landscapes. By investing in these partnerships, the U.S. could help build more capable allies and create reliable partners, reinforcing economic interests while serving as a counterbalance to authoritarian influences.
The governance frameworks developed through these collaborations will define the future of AI. Without significant U.S. involvement, there is a risk that these frameworks may be primarily shaped by Chinese and Russian influences, potentially embedding authoritarian practices in AI development.
The Costs of U.S. Withdrawal
Rising authoritarianism in regions like Sahelian Africa and Latin America has been significantly bolstered by Chinese and Russian influence through various means, including military and economic partnerships. China’s proactive role in international AI cooperation exemplifies the depth of its outreach and engagement, while the U.S. risks negating its influence through decreased multilateral engagement.
China is already making strides in offering AI-powered projects across the Global South, such as in Kenya and Nigeria, while ambitious collaborations, like establishing joint research facilities with Brazil, further solidify its leadership in AI. Meanwhile, countries like Nigeria have openly supported Chinese governance models, reflecting a clear shift in allegiance toward established partnerships.
Examining U.S. Initiatives: Potential and Limitations
Recent U.S. initiatives highlight both potential benefits and inherent limitations in terms of capacity-building engagements. A partnership with Zipline to deliver medical supplies across Africa, while well-intentioned, may encounter roadblocks, given the significant financial commitments required from already burdened governments. Conversely, the U.S. investment in Cassava Technologies has shown promise in fostering local capacity by leveraging American technologies while encouraging economic growth in African contexts.
However, overall U.S. strategies still fall short due to a predominant focus on transactional relationships rather than nurturing longer-term partnerships. This gap can limit sustainable development and effectively hinder the U.S. from solidifying its role in the global AI landscape.
The Path for Effective Global Partnerships
For the U.S. to cultivate authentic AI partnerships, an overhaul of its strategic approaches is essential. Prioritizing technological sovereignty can lead to initiatives allowing countries to dictate their own AI futures while ensuring that local values and governance structures are respected. The emphasis should shift from merely exporting technology to facilitating development that builds resilience and independence.
Investment must complement existing initiatives to support local capacities in governance, auditing, and ethical AI practices. Enabling countries to craft their frameworks for a transparent and accountable AI ecosystem will require a long-term commitment from the U.S.
Moreover, fostering collaborative relationships across political spectra can cultivate the stability necessary for robust AI ecosystems in diverse environments. This strategic shift could ensure that local interests guide AI development, while also aligning with broader U.S. strategic priorities.
Looking Ahead: The Future of U.S.-International AI Engagement
The landscape for AI capacity-building is rapidly evolving, and without significant American involvement, the U.S. risks falling behind its global counterparts in shaping the future. Compared to European agencies, U.S. funding for AI initiatives remains fragmented and inadequately resourced. This systemic gap highlights the urgency for a reassessment of U.S. priorities and strategic engagement in the AI domain.
As barriers to collaboration with both Global Majority nations and local stakeholders remain, the potential for American influence risks diminishing. U.S. technology companies may operate with individual imperatives, but they lack the comprehensive support required to establish meaningful, productive relationships. A focused government role is critical to anchor these partnerships, ensuring they are not rendered vulnerable by shifts in corporate priorities.
The contrast between U.S. approaches to international AI engagement and those of countries like China reveals the fundamental need for a paradigm shift from a reactive stance to one that centers on partnership and shared growth. If the U.S. is to forge a leading role in global AI governance, it must embrace a long-term, equitable vision that fosters democracy, innovation, and stability in the expanding AI landscape.