November is typically a month of excitement for small South African exporters as they gear up for the lucrative Black Friday shopping frenzy in the United States. This annual bonanza is renowned for propelling sales for businesses, large and small, often resulting in a significant boost to their annual revenue. However, recent changes in U.S. tariff regulations have cast a long shadow over this once-celebrated occasion. The latest findings from the SME Export Index spotlight the challenges faced by small exporters amid these regulatory shifts.
Craig Lowman, the CEO and co-founder of TUNL, a South African international shipping platform, shared insights into the dramatic impact these tariffs have caused. “In a normal year, Black Friday sees the U.S.-bound gross monthly volume (GMV) of shipments soar about 60% above average monthly shipments,” he explained. This spike not only signifies a peak shopping moment but serves as a crucial lifeline for exporters. However, this year is different—remarkably different. The latest data shows that Black Friday shipments were down 46% from the monthly average and a staggering 66% compared to the same time last year.
Lowman didn’t mince words when he characterized the situation as “catastrophic.” The loss of the $800 de minimis threshold, which previously allowed low-value exports to bypass tariffs, has hit South African exporters hard. This threshold was vital for small businesses, enabling them to ship affordable items without extra financial burdens impacting their customers. As a result, many small exporters find themselves at a crossroads, struggling to maintain viability in a market becoming increasingly costly for consumers.
For many small businesses, navigating this shipping landscape has turned into a daunting task. Aretha Cooper, the COO of TUNL, elaborated on the broader implications of these tariffs. “While most South African businesses experienced a knockout domestic Black Friday, this level of success didn’t translate to brands shipping to the US,” she noted. The fundamental issue lies in how tariffs disproportionately impact smaller entities that lack the financial flexibility to absorb increased costs. As a result, businesses find themselves forced to pass these new expenses along to consumers, making their products less appealing in a fiercely competitive market.
Traditionally, the months of October, November, and December signify peak sales periods as American consumers shop for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the festive season. This year, however, the narrative is starkly different. Gift items from South Africa seem to be absent from the minds—or shopping lists—of U.S. consumers grappling with the newfound realities of increased import costs, leading to diminished sales figures at an essential time of year.
As the festive season approaches and the excitement of Black Friday fades, the ramifications of the U.S. tariff changes remain palpable. With the Supreme Court of Appeals yet to decide on the legality of these tariffs, South African SMEs are in a precarious position. The implications of these shifts suggest that businesses aiming to export to the U.S. are preparing for a tough festive season, and indications hint that the landscape will be even more challenging in 2026.