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Jeremy Fowler
The afternoon of Friday, July 26, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in the NFL: the Miami Dolphins secured a four-year, $212.4 million extension for their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With $167 million in guarantees, this deal resonated deeply in a franchise long searching for a reliable starter. From the retirement of Dan Marino in 1999 to Tagovailoa’s draft in 2020, Miami cycled through 21 quarterbacks—hence the significance of this new chapter. Deservedly lauded for leading the league with 4,624 passing yards in 2023, Tagovailoa’s contract symbolized the stability the Dolphins had lacked for decades.
At the time, then-general manager Chris Grier expressed the team’s unwavering belief in Tagovailoa, noting his drive to excel and his trusting relationship with head coach Mike McDaniel. Yet, how things can change in a heartbeat. Fast forward to December 2025, and the Dolphins now grapple with the reality of a potential second consecutive losing season, with Tagovailoa benched amid disconcerting performances. As fans mourn past glories, the situation raises crucial questions for the franchise moving forward.
Why has Tua’s level of play fallen?
Several analysts have suggested that Tagovailoa, at only 27, is experiencing an early decline. His track record of concussions likely looms large, impacting his ability to absorb hits and maintain aggressive play. A seasoned NFL scout observed that Tagovailoa no longer exhibits the quickness and explosiveness he once displayed. Last season, his footwork allowed him to extend plays; however, many note that he seems to have become comfortable—perhaps even complacent.
Off the field, Tagovailoa’s work ethic appears intact, but his on-field performance speaks volumes. Ranking 30th in QBR at just 36.7 this season—down from 10th in 2023—he’s been careless with the ball, throwing 15 interceptions in 14 games. Durability concerns can weigh heavily on a player’s mental state, and it’s reported that Tagovailoa may have shied away from high-risk plays. Examples of indecisiveness include a notable moment in a Week 15 loss, where he hesitated on a crucial third-down scramble.
What’s his dynamic with Mike McDaniel?
The decision to bench Tagovailoa was McDaniel’s alone, with the intentions closely tied to weekly preparations rather than future outlooks. However, the strong support McDaniel initially offered seems diminished, suggesting a pivot towards fresh options. An NFC executive voiced concern that Miami might consider a change if McDaniel remains the head coach. The relationship appears professional yet strained, with McDaniel needing to evaluate whether Tagovailoa can thrive as a starter after over 55 games together.
McDaniel has emphasized the need for “convicted play” at the quarterback position, expressing frustration at missed opportunities. This season, Tagovailoa’s average of 6.9 yards per attempt places him near the bottom compared to league peers. Transitioning to Quinn Ewers for the last stretch not only allows McDaniel to assess a future prospect but might also serve as a protective measure for his own job security.
What would a Dolphins-Tua split entail?
As discussions swirl around Tagovailoa’s future, most executives anticipate Miami will consider parting ways. However, the financial implications of his contract loom large. With $54 million in guaranteed money in 2026 and additional triggers for future years, cutting him outright seems impractical. The challenges of trading a benched quarterback with a hefty price tag deepen the dilemma—neither cutting nor trading Tagovailoa presents an appealing option for the franchise.
Should a trade happen, potential savings exist, but not before navigating a dead cap hit around $45.2 million if dealt before June 1. The consensus among front-office executives suggests that the Dolphins may find themselves “stuck” due to Tagovailoa’s contract dynamics, with many assuming he could remain on the roster into next season.
Are the Dolphins facing a massive dead cap hit if Tua is released?
The financial landscape is complex for the Dolphins. Designating Tagovailoa as a post-June 1 release would allow the organization to distribute $99 million of dead cap over two years—not an ideal scenario, but manageable. Conversely, without designation prior to June 1, the full dead cap would hit in one lump sum. Such staggering numbers could force tough decisions on other high-paid players within the roster, potentially crimping Miami’s ability to retain elite talent like Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb.
Amid these challenges, desperate measures might incite the Dolphins to consider options like releasing established players to free up space—risking the loss of top-tier talent to reshape their roster. Evaluations of emerging talent indicates that Miami must sharpen its quarterback strategy, with drafts offering a promising avenue to explore potential future starters.
Is there any outside interest in Tua this offseason?
Speculation around Tagovailoa’s future features a range of opinions among executives. Some express caution, indicating they’d lose comfort in deploying Tagovailoa as their starter moving forward. Free agency and the upcoming draft complicate this picture, as Miami might lighten Tagovailoa’s financial burden to drive a potential interest from other teams. Identifying suitors for Tagovailoa is tough, especially as many teams might already have bridge quarterbacks or rookies worth further evaluations.
Potential landing spots—like the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, or Minnesota Vikings—remain uncertain, as market demands shift swiftly. The unpredictable nature of the quarterback carousel, marked by several teams reshaping their rosters, suggests possibilities for Tagovailoa. Should he hit free agency, his history may position him as a sought-after option if teams can overlook durability concerns.
What does all of this mean for the 2026 Dolphins?
The path ahead for the Dolphins remains blurred, particularly with uncertainty in the general manager role. Interim GM Champ Kelly’s tenure and any decisions moving forward hinge significantly on the upcoming offseason. Miami, now positioned tenth in the draft order, has viable routes to secure a top-tier quarterback or prime additions that could reshape their future. Overall, internal evaluations and the CEO’s perspective on team direction weigh heavily as they navigate their quarterback conundrum.
While the Dolphins aim to secure leadership, they must also explore all avenues for quarterback competition. As pressure mounts, it becomes urgent to rediscover the spark Tagovailoa once showcased or pivot towards a new face under center. With significant stakes awaiting in the offseason, Miami’s ability to adapt to the shifting tides will define its narrative moving forward.