A Closer Look at the 2025 American League MVP Race

As we gear up for the announcement of the 2025 American League MVP, the debate surrounding the award is as riveting as ever. Bradford Doolittle, an ESPN MLB writer since 2013, highlights the standout performances of two candidates: Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners and Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. Each has left an indelible mark on the season, making the upcoming decision a fascinating topic of discussion.

The Candidates

Raleigh and Judge both had exceptional seasons, but their paths to the MVP nomination are quite different. Judge, a well-established star known for his power-hitting prowess, captured headlines with numerous achievements. Meanwhile, Raleigh, as a catcher, broke records and delivered a performance that captivated fans. Regardless of who takes home the trophy, one thing is clear: both players are deserving of the honor.

The Metrics: AXE Leaders

To clarify the debate, Doolittle employs the AXE system, which rates players based on leading metrics. According to the AXE leaders:

1. Aaron Judge: 164
2. Cal Raleigh: 150
3. Bobby Witt Jr.: 145

While this suggests Judge has a clear edge, looking deeper into their performances can offer nuanced insights.

The Historical Lens: Past MVP Decisions

Diving into the annals of MVP history, Doolittle references moments where past selections were influenced by skewed metrics. For instance, in the 1979 AL MVP voting, Don Baylor won despite lower WAR numbers, highlighting how traditional statistics like RBIs often clouded judgment. Both Judge and Raleigh, with modern metrics on their side, stand in stark contrast.

Value Metrics: The Worth of Each Player

When we examine the value of each player, one must consider how essential they were to their teams. Through simple simulations accounting for replacement-level players, the analysis reveals:

• Yankees with Judge: 94-68 (first in AL East)

• Yankees without Judge: 85-77 (third in AL East, no playoffs)

• Mariners with Raleigh: 90-72 (first in AL West)

• Mariners without Raleigh: 83-79 (second in AL West, no playoffs)

Based on this quick analysis, Judge’s absence would deeply affect the Yankees’ standing, while Raleigh’s loss would also be felt but to a lesser extent.

The “Best Player on the Best Team” Argument

In discussing which player deserves the title, the classic narrative often emerges: the best player on the winning team. Historically, this has proved influential, such as in the 1947 MVP race where Joe DiMaggio edged out Ted Williams despite the latter’s superior stats. This year, both Judge and Raleigh excelled as the premier players on their respective teams, creating a strong case for both sides.

Narrative vs. Metrics

While advanced stats spotlight Judge as the more outstanding player, narratives often sway voters. This year, Raleigh’s groundbreaking 60-home run season captures hearts, with records that resonate in baseball’s storied history. Notably, his ascent past records set by legends like Salvador Perez and Mickey Mantle adds a captivating layer to his candidacy.

The Role of Intangibles

Intangibles cannot be overlooked in evaluating the MVP race. Both players excel not just on the field but as leaders within their teams. Judge, wearing the Yankees’ captaincy, brings prestige, while Raleigh serves as an emotional cornerstone for Seattle. These leadership roles contribute significantly to their respective team’s chemistry and performance.

Conclusion

The impending announcement of the 2025 American League MVP promises to ignite conversations and debates among fans and analysts. With compelling arguments supporting both candidates, this year’s MVP race exemplifies the beauty of baseball—where history, metrics, narratives, and personal stories intertwine to create captivating discussions. Whether it be Cal Raleigh’s record-setting season or Aaron Judge’s established brilliance, the outcome showcases the dynamic nature of baseball and the enduring allure of its most distinguished players.