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Bill Connelly
This past Saturday felt like an “almost” sort of day in the world of college football. Top-ranked teams were pushed to their limits, showcasing the unpredictability that makes this sport endlessly captivating. No. 2 Indiana faced a potential collapse at Penn State, barely escaping with a win thanks to an impressive toe-tap catch by Omar Cooper Jr.. Meanwhile, No. 9 Oregon fought off a near loss against Iowa, clinching the game with a last-minute field goal from Atticus Sappington.
Auburn, eager for a close win, came tantalizingly close to defeating a ranked opponent for the first time in ages but ultimately fell short in overtime against Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. Even at the FCS and Division II levels, top-ranked teams like North Dakota State and Ferris State were tested late in the game but managed to rally for victories.
While the day’s drama unfolded, we witnessed significant upsets. Two more top-15 teams from the ACC, including No. 23 Washington falling to a struggling Wisconsin team, dropped out of playoff contention in what feels like a weekly saga of upsets. It leaves the ACC title race as murky as ever. Despite these unforeseen twists, Week 11 did provide some clarity in the College Football Playoff hunt, showcasing emerging contenders and their potential pitfalls.
Utilizing a formula based on the Allstate Playoff Predictor and SP+ odds, we can now identify eight teams—Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, among others—each with at least an 81% likelihood of making the 12-team playoff field. As we enter the final weeks of the regular season, let’s break these key contenders down into tiers, highlighting their most glaring weaknesses and potential reasons they might falter in the playoff chase.
Playoff Contenders’ Fatal Flaws
Tier 1
Bearing an impressive combined record of 28-0, Indiana, Ohio State, and Texas A&M are inching closer to securing their playoff spots, with Indiana holding the highest odds at 99.9%. However, despite this dominance, each is grappling with crucial flaws that could derail their title hopes.
Indiana (99.9%): Big-play vulnerabilities. Indiana has been formidable on defense but struggles when teams exploit gaps. This season, instances like the 59-yard run against them by Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton highlight their tendency to give away big plays, which could cost them dearly against more prolific offenses.
Ohio State (99.6%): Underwhelming rushing attack. Despite their top-tier passing game led by Julian Sayin, Ohio State’s run game has been nothing short of mediocre. With a rushing success rate ranking 19th but an alarming lack of explosiveness, they risk becoming predictable against elite defenses.
Texas A&M (99.3%): Deteriorating run defense. Texas A&M’s impressive offensive display against Missouri showcased their versatility, but the defense gave up over 200 rushing yards despite Mizzou’s lack of a passing threat. Currently ranked 130th in yards per carry allowed, their path to playoff success seems daunting.
Tier 2
In Tier 2, five teams—each with just one loss—highlight the constant struggle for playoff positioning. Among these, Texas Tech showcases both power and potential, leading their conference while grappling with consistency in performance.
Texas Tech (90.1%): Quarterback inconsistency. Despite a strong showing against lower-tier opponents, the Red Raiders face challenges under center. Quarterback Behren Morton struggles with injuries and consistency, which could hinder their success against formidable defenses.
Ole Miss (87.7%): Lack of a viable run game. While they possess weapons in the passing game, Ole Miss averages a mere 4.8 yards per carry, a statistic that presents concerns heading into playoff matchups where versatility on offense is crucial.
Oregon (87.0%): Scoring struggles against elite defenses. The Ducks have managed to secure wins but face challenges when matched against formidable defenses. With a scoring average that dips significantly against strong opponents, they must find ways to adapt their offense.
Georgia (85.4%): Inconsistent defensive performance. While demonstrating strength against weaker opponents, Georgia has shown inability to contain offenses until the second half of games this season. This delayed response could prove problematic against high-scoring teams in playoff scenarios.
Alabama (81.0%): Struggles with the run game. Despite a renowned passing game, Alabama’s run attack continues to falter, currently positioned at 83rd nationally in yards allowed per carry. Driving solely on their passing game may not suffice against stronger defensive teams.
Tier 3
In Tier 3, the landscape remains daunting for teams like Notre Dame, BYU, and Georgia Tech, all vying for a potential playoff spot. Though they have the talent, lingering weaknesses suggest they face an uphill battle.
Notre Dame (59.6%): Struggles on third-and-long. The Fighting Irish’s heavy reliance on explosive plays leads to frequent third-and-long situations, causing an uphill battle against quality defenses that can capitalize on their mistakes.
BYU (45.4%): Offensive inconsistency. Despite solid defensive metrics, BYU struggles against higher-performing teams, exposing their offense when faced with fierce competition.
Georgia Tech (37.4%): Defensive vulnerabilities. While the offense has proven explosive, the defense traditionally falters under pressure, which could lead to costly outcomes as they face tougher opponents.
Tier 4a: Non-ACC Teams
Teams remaining in Tier 4a find themselves fighting for survival, needing a string of victories to maintain playoff hopes. SP+ indicates only one—Utah—has better than a 35% chance of winning out, placing immense pressure on each of them.
Texas (28.0%): Offensive line weaknesses. Struggles along the offensive line have been a primary driver of issues, while injuries to key players hinder their ability to maintain consistent production.
Oklahoma (27.0%): Offensive inconsistencies. The Sooners’ defense has stepped up, but the offense struggles with big plays and turnovers, preventing them from capitalizing on defensive strengths.
Utah (25.6%): Inconsistent explosiveness. Though they’ve been dominant in victories, two losses reveal a lack of reliable scoring that could hinder their playoff viability.
Vanderbilt (25.5%): Defensive decline. A stronger showing offensively has been overshadowed by the defense’s inability to contain scoring from competitors, making their playoff aspirations tenuous.
USC (15.8%): Weaknesses in run defense. Despite better performances overall, the Trojans have struggled defensively, particularly against the run, which could be exposed in tougher matchups.
Michigan (7.6%): Lack of offensive risk. The Wolverines’ conservative play style has masked issues with executing during critical moments, limiting big-play opportunities that could propel them into stronger positions.
Tier 4b: ACC Teams
The ACC picture remains convoluted. Each of the teams competing for the title faces questions about their ability to overcome weaknesses as they vie for a playoff bid.
Miami (15.7%): Lacking explosiveness. Recent losses highlight Miami’s struggles to score efficiently, indicating potential roadblocks in high-stakes matchups.
Virginia (14.5%): Declining offensive effectiveness. Despite a strong start, recent performances demonstrate an alarming trend of dwindling production. They face must-win situations ahead to revive their hopes.
SMU (11.8%): Inconsistency in efficiency. Heavy reliance on explosive plays raises questions regarding their sustainability, as their current style translates poorly into critical moments against strong opponents.
Louisville (8.1%): Struggles with maintaining momentum. Persistent injury woes combined with a lack of viable production create roadblocks that could hinder their journey toward a strong finish.
Pittsburgh (7.8%): Challenges in execution. Even as strong defensively, Pitt sees offensive missteps compounding their challenges ahead, making playoff aspirations a significant stretch.
Tier 5
The landscape is tightening as Memphis and San Diego State face elimination, highlighting the playoff race’s intensity. Only a garden of hope exists for teams like James Madison, which must overcome obstacles to keep their playoff aspirations alive.
James Madison (34.3%): Winning the field position battle. Strong defensive metrics are stifled by costly turnovers; they must improve their execution to avoid giving competitors advantageous opportunities.
North Texas (28.3%): Defensive frailties. Scoring potential remains high, but they struggle defensively, which could prove damaging in tight playoff battles.
South Florida (22.4%): Struggles in pass defense. Similar to other contenders, South Florida can score dynamically, but their pass defense requires significant improvements as they move forward.
Tulane (7.5%): Defensive inefficiencies. When strong, they have shown playoff potential, but sustained defensive lapses coupled with performance inconsistencies will hinder their path ahead.
This Week in SP+
As the SP+ rankings adjust, let’s take note of teams experiencing significant shifts this week. Tracking these fluctuations can provide insights into their overall trajectories leading into the playoffs.
Moving Up:
Hawai’i has seen a notable increase, now ranked 72nd after a major victory; their resurgence is a refreshing change and timely for a program in need of success. Kentucky has also rallied, demonstrating significant improvement helping them towards achieving bowl eligibility.
Moving Down:
San Diego State, BYU, and Florida have struggled this week, all experiencing declines that could weigh heavily on their playoff aspirations moving forward.
Who Won the Heisman This Week?
A whimsical note in the world of college football is the Heisman race, and this week marks another gearing-up for contention. Highlighting performances, Diego Pavia from Vanderbilt stands out, earning the top spot for his all-around contribution against Auburn, further fueling his candidacy.
Heisman Top 5 This Week:
- Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- Emmett Johnson, Nebraska
- Jake Retzlaff, Tulane
- Byrum Brown, USF
- Ashton Daniels, Auburn
This week’s performances from pivotal players bring excitement and uncertainty alike, keeping fans on the edge as they anticipate which players will emerge as true candidates for the prestigious award.