The Trump regime’s National Security Strategy (NSS) has been the subject of intense scrutiny and analysis. Known for his spontaneous policy reversals, Trump’s approach has often seemed driven more by instinct than a coherent strategic framework. Nonetheless, the NSS presents two unmistakable messages.
Shifting Alliances and Economic Nationalism
First and foremost, the United States has signaled a significant pivot away from its traditional alliances. The strategy indicates that the U.S. may no longer prioritize these relationships, instead favoring narrow economic advantages, even at the expense of long-standing partnerships. This transactional approach not only alienates allies but also puts the very foundations of international diplomacy at risk. The underlying belief seems clear: America first, even if it means disregarding the goodwill built over decades.
The Role of Global Policeman
Secondly, the NSS articulates a retreat from the idea of the U.S. as the global policeman. Historically, America has taken on the mantle of global leadership, often stepping in to maintain order. However, the current strategy suggests a withdrawal from this responsibility, encouraging other nations to forge their own security arrangements. While this stance may seem liberating to some, it effectively places many countries—especially those in precarious regions—into a vulnerable position. Countries like India, which are surrounded by complex geopolitical challenges, may feel particularly isolated.
The Multipolar World
For years, Indian analysts and politicians have advocated for a multipolar world—one where power is dispersed among multiple nations rather than dominated by a single superpower. Now, with the U.S. delineating this shift in clear terms, one would expect a moment of celebration. However, the reality is sobering. Countries like China are not only asserting their claims—such as those on Arunachal Pradesh—but are also extending their influence globally, establishing themselves as formidable players. Consequently, India finds itself in a precarious position, tasked with securing its own borders and interests without the robust support of established allies.
Historical Context: The Necessity of a Strong Policeman
Historical precedent suggests that regions prosper under the guidance of a strong authority capable of enforcing rules. The absence of governance leads to chaos, which can wreak havoc on commerce and investment. The Pax Romana, which lasted from 27 BCE to approximately 180 AD, exemplified this idea. During this period, the Roman Empire achieved unprecedented economic prosperity. By contrast, after its decline, Europe experienced stagnation for centuries.
Economist Colin Crook notes that it wasn’t until the 1850s that countries like Britain began to see living standards comparable to those of the Romans. Meanwhile, Deepak Lal, in his book In Praise of Empires, argues that empires historically contributed positively to governance and economic prosperity, although some critiques have misconstrued his arguments as an endorsement of colonialism. Lal emphasizes the importance of rules in maintaining order.
The Aftermath of World War II
Historically, the U.S. was predominantly isolationist; however, following World War II, it saw the Soviet Union as an existential threat and assumed the role of hegemon. This pivot resulted in the creation of international institutions such as the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, which facilitated the establishment of rules and norms for global engagement. The post-WWII era witnessed an explosion of globalization and unprecedented economic growth.
From 1950 to 2003, per-capita incomes across various regions surged dramatically, illustrating the prosperity generated under U.S. leadership. Although many countries harbored resentment towards this hegemony, the U.S. didn’t solely act in its self-interest. Instead, it focused on creating public goods—benefits available to all, even the most powerful nations. This approach laid the groundwork for the global institutions that many now criticize but had previously catalyzed immense prosperity.
The Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy
The Trump administration’s dealings with China mark a departure from the previous approach that sought to manage China’s rise as a manageable challenge. Instead, the current narrative resembles a straightforward Cold War, albeit less structured than its predecessor. This latest phase has seen the U.S. withdraw from alliances and various international agreements that once fostered cooperative engagement on shared values like democracy and human rights.
India’s Plight and Future
Despite navigating through the initial phase of Trump 2.0 adeptly, India’s trajectory is increasingly uncertain. The U.S.-crafted ecosystem that has historically supported India’s rise is beginning to deteriorate. While there is room for optimism, the emerging landscape introduces complexities that could challenge India’s aspirations on both geopolitical and economic fronts.
Each of these points illustrates a profound transformation in the global political landscape, as the norms of international engagement are redefined, leaving nations like India to grapple with their own security and diplomatic strategies in an increasingly isolationist world.