The Kansas City Chiefs and NFL Upset Season of 2025

Since Patrick Mahomes stepped into the spotlight as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2018, the team has been the envy of the NFL. With five Super Bowl appearances in the last six years and three victories to their name, the Chiefs have set a high bar for success. Expectations were sky-high entering the 2025 season, as Kansas City was seen as a frontrunner with the fourth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl at +800, and second-best odds to clinch the AFC championship at +350.

However, the franchise has faced unexpected challenges this season, with their latest setback being a disappointing 20-10 home loss to the Houston Texans. This upset marked a critical point in their campaign, leading to a steep drop in playoff odds—from -450 to +390. With this loss, their chances of making the postseason appear increasingly bleak, and they find themselves grappling with a surprising combination of both underperformance and lofty expectations.

The Landscape of the NFL in 2025

The struggles of the Chiefs are reflective of a broader trend in the NFL this season, where once-prominent Super Bowl contenders are faltering. Teams that few saw as serious threats have risen to the occasion, especially in the AFC. Week 14 of this season featured several matchups that had significant playoff implications, serving as a potential pivot point for many franchises.

As DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello noted before the weekend, this week’s outcomes could significantly influence teams’ trajectories for the remainder of the season. It’s a complex dance in NFL betting, where bookies strive to create a balance that makes each game appear predictable, when in reality, unpredictability is at an all-time high.

Betting Markets and Team Dynamics

Despite Kansas City’s storied foundation and enduring reputation, sportsbooks have not dramatically altered their approach to betting odds regarding the Chiefs. Bettors continued to show faith in the team early in the season, making them a liability for DraftKings in the AFC West and Super Bowl markets. The difficulty in assessing their odds ties back to the Chiefs’ historical performance combined with this season’s dramatic team dynamics.

Caesars Sportsbook Head of Football, Joey Feazel, elucidates this point, emphasizing that their goal is to encapsulate each game’s inherent uncertainty in their odds. With parity more prominent than ever this year, adjustments have been crucial to reflect teams’ probabilities more accurately.

The AFC Playoff Picture

Sunday’s loss to the Texans was particularly significant for the Chiefs, as it eliminated them from contention for the AFC West crown. This loss snapped their consecutive division-title streak that began in 2016. Competing for the title now are teams such as the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom have seen their preseason odds shift considerably.

The struggles are not isolated to Kansas City. The Baltimore Ravens also entered the season as strong contenders, tied with the Buffalo Bills for Super Bowl and AFC favorites. However, their season has been riddled with inconsistency, highlighted by a recent defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This outcome altered their odds from -230 to +170 for winning the AFC North and raised questions about their playoff viability moving forward.

Shifting Fortunes: The Indianapolis Colts

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Indianapolis Colts began their season as heavy underdogs with 100-1 odds for the Super Bowl. After a scorching 7-1 start, the Colts seemed ready to defy expectations. But a recent defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, alongside the significant injury to quarterback Daniel Jones, has plunged their fortunes dramatically. Their odds have morphed from +140 for the AFC South title to a staggering +2200 after the loss, showcasing the rapid shifts in NFL dynamics.

This season’s unpredictability has allowed the Houston Texans to cultivate new playoff aspirations. After their victory over the Chiefs, they now sit with +150 odds to win the AFC South, riding a wave of momentum that few anticipated at the season’s onset.

The Bills and the Competitive AFC

While some teams have struggled, the Buffalo Bills seem to navigate through the chaos more adeptly than most, recently scoring a pivotal victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. Although they remain the top Super Bowl contender in the AFC, they face stiff competition from the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos, both of whom now possess better odds to win the conference.

The impending Week 15 matchup between Buffalo and New England looms large, promising to shape the landscape of the AFC playoffs. As the Bills prepare to tread carefully in this high-stakes environment, sports analysts and bettors alike will be watching closely.

Turmoil in the NFC

The NFC isn’t without its own share of chaos. The Chicago Bears briefly held the conference’s top seed before faltering against the Green Bay Packers, a game that acted as a litmus test for their true playoff capabilities. As Feazel remarked, Week 14 could be a reality check for potential contenders in both conferences.

Bookmakers’ Perspective

One thing is clear: this season’s upheaval has been a boon for bookmakers. Unlike last year, where favorites dominated with over 71% winning rates, this year has seen only a 66% success rate for favorites, creating a more favorable betting environment. With increased parity, every game has become a genuine contest, providing excitement not only for players and fans but also for those who place their bets.

The unpredictability of the NFL in 2025 has showcased the endless twists and turns that make the league so captivating. While the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens struggle to maintain their margins, other teams are seizing opportunities, proving that anything can happen on any given Sunday.