The Strategic Importance of the South Atlantic: A New Geopolitical Arena

The South Atlantic, nestled between South America’s vibrant shores and West Africa’s diverse landscapes, has often been a peripheral topic in global strategic discussions. Yet, this oceanic expanse is emerging as a critical hub linking Europe and the Indo-Pacific, mainly through the Panama Canal and the Cape of Good Hope. The disruption of maritime routes in early 2024 due to turmoil in the Red Sea triggered a staggering 60% increase in vessel tonnage transiting the Cape, underscoring the area’s rising importance.

Vital Resources and Geopolitical Players

This basin is not merely a body of water; it harbors influential nations like Argentina, Brazil, Nigeria, and South Africa. These countries possess vast reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, copper, and silver—elements essential for the green transition and defense technologies. The seabed of the Atlantic and territorial claims in Antarctica may soon become arenas for heightened geopolitical competition, as nations vie for resource access and strategic advantages.

Drug Trafficking and European Security

In addition to economic potential, the South Atlantic serves as a significant transatlantic drug-trafficking corridor. The primary cocaine route stretches directly from Andean nations to Europe, often facilitated through West and Central Africa. From 2019 to 2024, European authorities intercepted over 550 tonnes of cocaine intended for EU ports, emphasizing the critical implications for regional stability and security.

Emerging Alliances and External Interests

As countries along the South Atlantic develop their geopolitical strategies, external powers like China and the United States are intensifying their involvement in the region. Through various trade agreements, security partnerships, and diplomatic outreach, these nations aim to solidify their foothold amidst growing geopolitical contests. For Europe, ignoring the strategic significance of this region could jeopardize its interests and influence.

A Shifting Security Landscape

Diplomatic and security ties across the South Atlantic have grown stronger in recent years. Leading nations such as Angola and Brazil, along with Nigeria and South Africa, are pursuing cooperative ventures to tackle shared challenges, including drug trafficking and piracy. Despite their collective defense expenditures representing just over 3% of global military spending as of 2024, low investment does not equate to reduced security risks.

The South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone (ZOPACAS), established in 1986, attempts to institutionalize security measures, focusing on maintaining peace and preventing nuclear proliferation in the region. Brazil, particularly, has integrated ZOPACAS into its naval strategies to address organized crime and external interference.

Growing Maritime Cooperation

Recent joint exercises, such as the India–Brazil–South Africa naval drills and various US-led maritime security operations, have expanded regional collaboration. Brazil’s engagement ranges from participation in anti-piracy initiatives with West African nations to direct security partnerships with Nigeria and Senegal. Key diplomatic visits between leaders also highlight deepening ties, reflecting a growing understanding that internal and external security matters are fundamentally linked.

Trade and Economic Relations

On the economic front, inter-regional trade between Latin America and African nations has surged significantly, with some countries witnessing triple-digit growth in trade volume from 2018 to 2024. While formal agreements are limited, a surge in bilateral memorandums of understanding illustrates a drive toward deeper economic integration. Brazil has notably rekindled its business engagements in hydrocarbon-rich nations like Nigeria, while South Africa enhances trade ties with several Latin American counterparts.

Diplomatic Engagement and Shared Goals

Heightened diplomatic engagement is a common theme among both regions, with a shared ambition to reform multilateral systems and foster closer collaboration. High-profile interactions between organizations like the African Union and CELAC underscore the collective commitment to tackle issues ranging from trade policies to reparatory justice.

Although certain nations, like Argentina, are diversifying their international allegiances, a majority continue to seek closer ties. Brazil has taken an active role at global summits, indicating its leadership ambitions within the Global South and its willingness to challenge dominant narratives from foreign powers like the United States.

Global Powers Eye the South Atlantic

Interest from major global powers is intensifying. Togo and Russia’s military cooperation agreement illustrates the growing geopolitical stakes in the Gulf of Guinea, emphasizing the region’s potential as a strategic military foothold.

China’s strategic maneuvers in the South Atlantic reveal further layers of competition. With robust trade exceeding €410 billion, Beijing’s investments focus on critical minerals and infrastructure development, leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative to expand influence. Its security footprint is equally pronounced, with substantial arms exports to African nations and increasing educational engagements with military academies.

Evolving American Strategies

The United States is reassessing its strategy in the South Atlantic, recognizing significant trade and investment opportunities. Recent initiatives, like the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation, aim to bolster ties with aligned governments, although skepticism regarding multilateralism complicates these efforts. Amidst this U.S. pivot, a growing preference for hard power approaches in the Caribbean and military alliances reflects a shifting paradigm.

A Multi-Stakeholder Contest

Beyond the major powers, a multitude of countries—including Canada, France, and Germany—are seeking to carve out their interests in the South Atlantic, pointing to an increasingly crowded strategic landscape. The Gulf of Guinea has also attracted commitments from nations like the United Arab Emirates, which recently pledged billions in investments.

The EU’s Role and Future Engagement

The European Union stands out as the largest investor in the South Atlantic, with substantial financial commitments aimed at improving regional maritime security and governance. As strategic dynamics evolve, the EU must navigate these changes carefully to maintain and even expand its influence.

By fostering partnerships and strengthening institutional frameworks, Europe can mitigate risks stemming from geopolitical tensions. By engaging deeply with both Africa and Latin America, the EU can secure its interests in an increasingly contested arena marked by rising competition and interdependence.

The South Atlantic is no longer just a body of water but rather a pivotal geopolitical battleground. Recognizing its importance is crucial for comprehending the broader currents of global strategy in the coming years.